Coronavirus and homemade tools

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My question is though since the virus has already proven to be transmitted either by touch or airborne from breathing in the air around you after someone has sneezed or coughed plus it is theorized to have a longer life in humidity's above 40% would it be too far fetched to think that it could be transmitted through air handling equipment like legionnaires disease? All of the triggers are there.

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From what we know now, this is not too far-fetched at all, certainly if the air is moving over short distances. What is the best source of virus-filtering material to incorporate into homemade tools that handle air?

For example, I'm looking at this 3M air filter selection guide. Some of the filters are labelled as filtering viruses. What are those filters made from?

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Originally Posted by Jon

From what we know now, this is not too far-fetched at all, certainly if the air is moving over short distances. What is the best source of virus-filtering material to incorporate into homemade tools that handle air?

For example, I'm looking at this 3M air filter selection guide. Some of the filters are labelled as filtering viruses. What are those filters made from?

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The solution could be as simple as infusing common table salt in the filter media or mildly saturating the media with vinegar, or dusting the filters with powdered chinchona bark
Ok here is a tip for anyone who may have been infected. many viruses which attack the respiratory system can be halted slowed or in many cases completely stopped if the victim recognizes themselves as coming down with something early on.
When every preventative measure has failed to protect you from catching a virus and you start to feel a scratchy sensation in your throat a way to stop this is to gargle with a salt water and vinegar mixture. Tonic water table salt and vinegar works great but if you don't happen to have tonic water but have these ingredients you can make your own. "lemongrass, citric acid, chinchona bark, allspice, cardamom, star anise"
Any way mix the tonic water with table salt and vinegar then use as a gargle.
Since most viruses begin with an irritated throat and take several days to mastisize further down in the body if you can stop it before your fever becomes too severe In my opinion there is a better than average chance this virus could be stopped as well. I gargle simply salt and cheap vinegar when ever my wife used catch a cold from being around people where she used to work. I never catch a cold but then again I eat so much hot pepper sauce that I make out of a myriad of spices and chilis that could be another reason as well. I know that my wife used to suffer frequently from stomach viruses upset stomach and other gastro intestinal ailments that she ate quart sized bottles of indigestion tablets and drank Gaviscon like water until I finally talked her into eating more of my hot sauce, It has been 10 years since she has complained of heart burn or upset stomach

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Originally Posted by Jon

. . . For example, I'm looking at this 3M air filter selection guide. Some of the filters are labelled as filtering viruses. What are those filters made from?

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The chart is misleading. Most likely because there is no accountability on a chart. Printing a label on a product is a serious matter and can subject you to "Truth in advertising" litigation.

This is the actual claim on the filter; "Particles that can carry a virus" is a big difference" from the insinuation in the chart that the filter can actually trap a virus. Most viruses are less than 200nm in size. The Filtrete 2200 is not even rated as a HEPA filter.

Attachment 34092 Attachment 34094

The text you see on the left (above) is what is printed inside my marked-up red circle on the Filtrete 2200 filter package.

Sorry about the pic orientation. Pics get flipped during uploading and I have no idea how to control it. I have no idea how a 3rd pic below was installed and a few attempts at edit could not delete it.

Frank S - salt gargles to slow viral infection may be questionable (although they can provide relief of symptoms), but, yes, salting masks is reasonable, and perhaps we can apply that to salting filtration media. More: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956

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Here, we report the development of a universal, reusable virus deactivation system by functionalization of the main fibrous filtration unit of surgical mask with sodium chloride salt. The salt coating on the fiber surface dissolves upon exposure to virus aerosols and recrystallizes during drying, destroying the pathogens.

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Also, this 1:25 video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8EgAOoY4Gg

Good call Saltfever. Regarding pics, our forum software automatically flips them into what it thinks is correct orientation, but it doesn't always get it right.

Anyway, our question remains: what fabric or bulk filter material can we use to make virus-filtering tools? Is there a rating system we should be looking at? MERV rating? Also, how do we reconcile this with the fact that viruses generally travel through the air encased in droplets that are much larger than viruses. Is filtering those droplets enough?

What are peoples' plans if a household member gets infected? Our plan is to use our master bedroom as a ward. Leave adjoining master bathroom door open, and turn on bathroom fan; this should provide negative pressure. Because of what we know - and don't know - about airborne spread, our plan is to either unplug our forced-air propane furnace, or seal off the vents in the bedroom, and to heat the room with portable electric heaters if it's cold. If I can find a good furnace filter, we might be able to keep the furnace running, which is important because it's also connected to our whole house steam humidifier (Colorado mountains are very dry).

The household viral attack rate is enough such that infection of other household members is still likely, but I'd like to stagger our illnesses (a "flatten-the-curve" strategy, but within a household), so that if one of us becomes extremely ill, the other person will at least be less ill at that time, and can care for the sick person, or drive them to the hospital if need be.

The major usage for N95 masks (the surgical standard) is not to block pathogens coming in but rather to protect others from pathogens going out which might be inadvertently expelled by the wearer. The masks are intended to potentially protect others from aerosolized pathogens. Wearing one's a caring and responsible thing to do but not very effective at blocking an incoming infection.

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Originally Posted by Crusty

The major usage for N95 masks (the surgical standard) is not to block pathogens coming in but rather to protect others from pathogens going out which might be inadvertently expelled by the wearer. The masks are intended to potentially protect others from aerosolized pathogens. Wearing one's a caring and responsible thing to do but not very effective at blocking an incoming infection.

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This is a valid point, but note that, yes, this is true for surgical masks, aka "procedure masks", but N95 masks are also worn to protect healthy people.

Unfortunately, because covid infected people can be asymptomatic and contagious for - what we now believe - to be a median of 5 days, if we encourage widespread mask-wearing, then people who are unknowingly ill but feel healthy will not be transmitting the virus.

Reusable respirators with P100 filters will filter even more than N95s, and lots of our guys will have those in their shops already. 3M actually manufactures a P100 filter that is specifically designed for viral outbreaks. PDF is here. A single pair of filters is expected to last for a full pandemic wave. Note the 6035 filter model number; I believe this is a 7093 model in the US market - good luck finding any of those now! However, any P100 filter will work, and the plastic encapsulated ones can be removed, wiped down, and then the respirator can be submerged to be sterilized.

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...35_filters.jpg

Maybe making the virus deviate around half an orange wasn't so silly after all.

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Originally Posted by Jon

. . . 3M actually manufactures a P100 filter that is specifically designed for viral outbreaks. PDF is here.

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Another PDF here for your viewing pleasure. Remember, "PN" is the filter efficiency in trapping particles equal to or GREATER than 0.3 microns. Anything smaller might get through depending on the entrapment scheme used by the manufacturer.

Of the more than 5,000 known viruses only a few are larger than 0.25 micron. Covid-19 is spherical and about 125nm in diameter (Wikipedia). It seems PN95 to PN100 work fairly well. Information is offered here so those who are thinking of home-brew solutions know the difficulty of the problem. How do you effectively trap a 0.125 micron diameter particle?

As I understand it (as an amateur of course), we mostly just need to trap the respiratory droplets within which the virions are transmitted in coughs, sneezes, and the breath of infected people. Fortunately, these droplets are much larger, which is why even homemade fabric masks offer a significant advantage.

People who study these viruses in labs wear positive pressure personnel suits. I don't think that those even filter outside air; they provide breathing air from overhead lines. For example, here's a person studying the Ebola virus (50% fatality rate) in a lab:

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...y_lab_suit.jpg

And note how some of the suits puff out significantly from the positive air pressure. This is analogous to a negatively-pressured hospital room. If there's a breach in the suit, the air ejecting out of the tear protects the wearer from virions entering.

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...ssure_suit.jpg

Gee Jon,
I thought that they were Sumo wrestling game suits

The DIY ventilator scene is exploding; I have so many bookmarks saved about them that I need a while just to go through them. Anyway, today let's look at homemade face shields.

Grocery stores are starting to install shields to protect cashiers. And we're seeing fewer and fewer photos of emergency medical responders without face shields. We know that covid can be transmitted via droplets into someone's eyes. But goggles fog up. And, infected droplets anywhere on your face is dangerous.

There's also a significant risk of transmission to healthcare workers who are performing coronavirus tests. There are different ways to test, but some of them involve sticking a probe deep down someone's throat or up their nose, and this is making patients involuntarily cough, thus infecting healthcare workers.

2-liter soda bottles are great for DIY face shields. Here's one by Alex-Kirkpatrick. 0:58 video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw1zocD3gW8

And the files for this face shield are here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...mtBBzjfXswrGvU

Yep. cool idea, well done!

This is a cool idea to make these disposable face shields not for grinding purposes but when working around chemicals which can splash or sprays like garden chemicals these could be sized up some by using the 3 liter bottles to have the shield wrap further around the face

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as well as to your builder page: DIYSwede's Homemade Tools. Your receipt:

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Nice example of no-touch mechanisms for a hand-washing tool. By (not sure if I'm pronouncing this correctly) ልዋ ሚድያ. 0:41 video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nrcVkFmcDw

Something that this pandemic has really made me realize: I like touching things. Buttons, controls, parts, pieces. Tapping, turning things over in my hand, running fingers along edges. Feeling textures and pressing things to know how different surfaces react to my touch. And this isn't just a sentiment or a personal preference. Tactile interaction is one of the ways that I gather and internalize knowledge about the world around me, and I'm sure many here are the same.

Now touching stuff is taboo, or you use a generic item to do the touching for you, or you have to wear gloves, which removes much of the sensation. I recognize that this is necessary, but I never realized how important it was to me.

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Originally Posted by Altair

Thanks DIYSwede! We've added your UV Ozone Generator to our Miscellaneous category,
as well as to your builder page: DIYSwede's Homemade Tools.

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Thanks, you guys! Guess this was my most "Miscellaneous" non-tool related post so far?
Seems like I wasn't entirely barking up the wrong tree a week ago, just winging my precautionary methods for "delaying the inevitable":
This site has provided some interesting findings in truly diverse subjects thru the years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UdtKssU7po

That guy usually delivers a solid scientific backing for his experiments,
and on the subject of ozone treatment he also references this study:
https://pennstate.pure.elsevier.com/...rations-on-esc
and forwards EPAs recommendations regarding commercially available products and their brand names:
https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-regist...nst-sars-cov-2

Take care all HMT:ers, wherever you are!
Thanks
Johan

Good job! being made of mostly plastic also makes it easier to wash, Bravo!

That guy did a pretty good job. I think that the USA and WHO messaging on masks may change. Fun fact: the current WHO leader has previously been accused of covering up three epidemics. NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/h...outbreaks.html

Here's an interesting PDF on mask sanitization and homemade masks from Stanford Medicine. It's full of warnings to not use these procedures at home, but it seems like they're just covering themselves legally.

Look at this common country comparison chart, with my basic red-and-blue box annotations, depicting the countries in which mask-wearing is common vs. those in which it is not. Not only does almost any barrier limit droplet transmission, but, because infected people are asymptomatic and contagious for days, widespread mask-wearing slows the spread of the virus.

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...ates_masks.jpg

Finally, for healthcare workers, I like this clever mask storage technique for reusing contaminated masks.

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I'm getting tired of the hysteria, misinformation & lack of basic math surrounding the actual threat of Covid-19, so I did some rudimentary calculations today based on current data for the U.S.:

DO THE MATH, FOLKS… THE SEASONAL FLU IS CURRENTLY ~3 TO 6 TIMES MORE DEADLY THAN COVID-19

Between October 1, 2019 and March 21, 2020 (172 days) between 24,000 and 62,000 people died from the SEASONAL FLU in the U.S., which is an average of between 140 and 360 deaths per day.

From February 29th, 2020 (date of first U.S. death) to March 28th (29 days) 1668 people have died from Covid-19 in the U.S., which is an average of 58 deaths per day.

Sources as of 3/28/2020:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Yes, I'm aware that there's going to be a Bell Curve, and that if you could know the number of seasonal flu deaths as of the 67th day of the 2019-2020 U.S. flu season, then you could compare the numbers of deaths between the two contagions on the 67th days to get a *better* comparison... I don't know if that data even exists.

that is a great Idea. After you have the mask on you can spray the plastic container to make sure it is ready to put the mask in again at the end of your shift.

This is an incorrect procedure for storage. In the operating room, we have to re use our N 95 mask. It is kept in a light paper bag to help the air borne droplets desiccate . Specifically instructed not to keep in a plastic bag ( this sealed container would have the same effect). Anesthesia personnel are at high risk when instrumenting the airway at the induction and emergence of surgery

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Originally Posted by IAMSatisfied

I'm getting tired of the hysteria, misinformation & lack of basic math surrounding the actual threat .
. . . Yes, I'm aware that there's going to be a Bell Curve . . .

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One issue it’s not a bell curve (which is a measure of standard deviation). It is an exponential curve. I won’t belabor this point but if you are still interested after reading below you can go here for an explanation of the current problem.

We have many people with preexisting conditions and when attacked by the flu some will have to go to the hospital for ventilators. Ventilators will save many. The Corona virus attacks differently. It hits the respiratory system in perfectly healthy people but most severely in our healthy older population. Normally, with managed medical care and ventilators, they would survive a pneumonia infection. With no ventilators they risk dying. That is the part you are missing. We have a finite supply of ventilators. The shape of the curve dictates whether our medical resources can meet the demand. A picture is worth . . . so look at the picture. We have no vaccine and a finite medical capacity. Accept that the red line is our supply of ventilators. Those above the line will die. Those below will survive. Your bell curve is medically manageable the other isn’t.


Attachment 34171

I tried to enlarge the pic but couldn't. Again, I tried to delete redundant pics. Sorry, it can't be done. I'll look for a forum tutorial.

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Originally Posted by IAMSatisfied

I'm getting tired of the hysteria, misinformation & lack of basic math surrounding the actual threat of Covid-19, so I did some rudimentary calculations today based on current data for the U.S. to put this in realistic perspective:

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Please check out this article that explains the differences between Covd-19 and the Flu https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html -It comes down to the percentage of people requiring hospitalizations and critical care. It appears to be an order of magnitude higher. Hospitalization length is very long, which is already overwhelming most regions. The death rate seems to be much higher among confirmed cases (the death rate in overwhelmed areas is hovering at about 10-12% of confirmed cases). So at the current projections, this will end up much deadlier than the seasonal flu.

The flu is most infections after day 3 or 4 of exhibiting symptoms. Covid-19 is infectious up to 12 days before exhibiting any symptoms, so it makes it much harder to control. It concentrates highly in the upper airways making easier to shed the virus and infect others. It's a stealth weapon!

The flu fades predictably as the weather warms up. Covid 19 is spreading in countries which do not currently have the flu season and there are no signs of fading.

So what is wrong in trying to eliminate a new threat from becoming a permanent part of our lives? Even if ends being only as deadly as the flu, that doubles the number of dying people.

Cheers.

Thanks guys. I'm handling a copy-pasted version of this just-the-flu position here. I'm deeply familiar with how shaky this position is, for various different reasons (which I'm happy to see our guys already know), and I also understand how WND is subtly quoting the NEJM article out of context.

It's OK to include some brief discussion here to address people's concerns as to why this really is serious, but I'll make sure this thread stays on track. We have a great discussion here with relevant and helpful homemade tools and ideas, and if it strays too far, I can just move some posts into another thread where people can discuss a just-the-flu position to their hearts' content.

The numbers are worsening so rapidly now that the best move seems to be to show people the data, then wait a few days for it to get even worse, then check in with them again. I remember when Wuhan first went on lockdown, and I convinced myself that it was just the flu. Part of "we're all in this together" is that we all go through the same cycle of disbelief when we encounter information on the virus.

Jon, I appreciate your concerns here and your efforts to rationalize the discussion on HMT, but if my comprehension of the situation in China, is correct, it's all done and dusted. Where the "western world" economies are all around minus 24/26%, China's is positive 3%, got to be more going on here than covid19.

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Originally Posted by old kodger

.....Where the "western world" economies are all around minus 24/26%, China's is positive 3%, got to be more going on here than covid19.

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There are VERY SCARY statistics, way more disconcerting than the Virus itself!!!

That is incorrect. Due to shortages, we have to reuse our N 95 in the operating room. Anesthesia personnel are at high risk for infection due to instrumenting the airway at the beginnings by and the end of the case. It is recommended that the N95 mask be stored in a light paper bag to help dessicate the virus. Plastic bag is contraindicated and the plastic box functions the same way.

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Originally Posted by JohnMTO

Everyone should read this book: Linus Pauling's book

(1977). Vitamin C, the Common Cold and the Flu. W.H. Freeman. ISBN 978-0-7167-0360-0

Widely available but not cheap try the library

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You can download a free PDF of that book here: https://ia803008.us.archive.org/18/i...%20Pauling.pdf

Lifestyle & dietary changes as homemade tools...

As the old adage goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. With that in mind, it's prudent to fortify one's immune system to be as robust as practical. Several ways one can do this are:

1) eat lots of fresh greens and veggies & shun all junk food. Get plenty of exercise, drink plenty of R.O. filtered water (1/2 oz. per lb. of body weight per day) and fresh air.

2) Added, refined sugars, maple syrup, honey, etc. ALL diminish or neutralize the immune system and reduces white blood cell count. Avoid these.

3) High dose Vitamin C, as Pauling suggests in the above linked book, is very helpful.

4) Cold water therapy/cold showers/polar bear swims all significantly boost (~ double) the whit blood cell count (~ double), which are your body's "border patrol" that apprehends and "eats" foreign invaders. The more of these good guys you have on duty, the fewer invaders get through the border.

Of course, there are other things one can do to boost immunity, but this is a good start.

Pauling's advocacy of mega-doses of vitamin C has been widely discredited, as has his concept of Orthomolecular medicine.

Advocating treatments such as this - which our best data tell us are very close to or equal to placebo in almost all situations - is harmful to people, because, even if the treatments have no effect, promoting them convinces people to prevent or delay the application of evidence-based treatment. This is especially true for Pauling's proposal to treat cancer with mega-dosing of vitamins. If you're interested in the complexities of the placebo effect, Harvard's Program in Placebo Studies is a good place to start.

There is a really narrow possible benefit of vitamin C supplementation, mostly for athletes, and there is some evidence that it may shorten the duration of colds for some people. And, of course, vitamin C supplementation can help people who are vitamin C deficient anyway (like all vitamins).

There is one study that intravenous vitamin C might help lower death rate in sepsis victims, and another study that vitamin C might help patients with sepsis and ARDS. There is no evidence that vitamin C will help prevent covid infection, and mega-dosing vitamin C can actually increase the risk of kidney stones.

Individual testimonials as to the value of mega-dosing vitamins may have correlated with positive effects for those individuals, and those individuals may be honestly sharing their personal experiences in a good-faith effort to help others. However, those effects do not present themselves when tested in larger populations, which strongly suggests - no surprise - that correlation is not causation.

Health improvements that laypeople attribute to practices such as vitamin mega-dosing are more likely caused by other activities that those people practice because they are more attentive to their health than average people. For example, someone may eat well, exercise daily, and mega-dose on vitamin C, and that person may attribute his improved health to vitamin C, when really he is healthy because he's participating in universally agreed-upon good health practices.

Some resources:

-Cochrane Review: Vitamin C for preventing and treating the common cold
-NEJM: Failure of High-Dose Vitamin C (Ascorbic Acid) Therapy to Benefit Patients with Advanced Cancer — A Controlled Trial
-NEJM: High-Dose Vitamin C versus Placebo in the Treatment of Patients with Advanced Cancer Who Have Had No Prior Chemotherapy — A Randomized Double-Blind Comparison
-Harvard Medical School Coronavirus Resource Center

The New England Journal of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, and Cochrane Reviews are our most credible sources of medical information.

This Quackwatch article on Pauling is also good: The Dark Side of Linus Pauling's Legacy

This site, and especially this thread, isn't the place to push pseudo-medical treatments like vitamin mega-dosing, or low-quality news sources like WND. If someone wants to mention medically questionable advice once, fine. However, repeatedly pushing it isn't acceptable. Stop doing it, or I'll ban you.

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Now, back to homemade tools. I like this 3D-printed hands-free door opening system. By Matthew Davis. 0:38 video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzh_dnGHmBg

This DIY mask with replaceable breathing filters is a very early prototype, but it's extremely creative, very low-buck, and has a lot of idea value.

Fullsize image: https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...s_fullsize.jpg

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net..._materials.jpg

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Finally, some humor. Hat tip to mklotz for this page of coronavirus jokes. I especially like this photo for its sad-but-true quality:

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...covid_mask.jpg

And, no day would be complete without some toilet paper jokes. Here we have a good comic:

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...virus_meme.jpg

And a GIF of a corona-alchemist turning paper into gold:

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Originally Posted by old kodger

Jon, I appreciate your concerns here and your efforts to rationalize the discussion on HMT, but if my comprehension of the situation in China, is correct, it's all done and dusted. Where the "western world" economies are all around minus 24/26%, China's is positive 3%, got to be more going on here than covid19.

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During the 1918 pandemic, cities and states that took the most aggressive measures and sacrificed the most were the ones that bounced back the quickest and had the best economic boom. The number of confirmed cases in the US is increasing by over 20k every day (as of yesterday) and doubling every few days, while China has had fewer than a 1000 cases almost all week. They are in the recovery while the rest of the world is still out of control. Other countries that took hard measures early are beginning to see their economy improve as well.
It seems we failed to learn from our own history.

I've moved two posts from this thread into the Site Suggestions and Help forum, where anyone is welcome to discuss them there.

Machined mask mold, by Abo_91, a machinist in Italy. This is a good contrast to the Pringles can mask above. Click each one to play.

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Also, I'm liking these memes that remind us how our culture is changing, with clever modifications to culturally iconic images.

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...covid_meme.jpg

https://diqn32j8nouaz.cloudfront.net...covid_meme.jpg

If I may, "Advocating treatments such as this - which our best data tell us are very close to or equal to placebo in almost all situations - is harmful to people, because, even if the treatments have no effect, promoting them convinces people to prevent or delay the application of evidence-based treatment. This is especially true for Pauling's proposal to treat cancer with mega-dosing of vitamins. If you're interested in the complexities of the placebo effect, Harvard's Program in Placebo Studies is a good place to start." Jon
A good book for many here to read is Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos. He spends a significant amount of time discussing probability and its application in uncovering quackery.
You may choose to move this post. My concern here is the innumeracy of some commenters. Probability is important.

If I understand what you are saying, I am thinking it is because it has already mutated at least twice and maybe more. I also will add, I think there is a load of information being withheld from the civilians all around the world. I can’t help but wonder about genetic predisposition with this. Because it makes no logical sense I can find about who it affects the worse. There has been very healthy and physically fit people die from it, but some very elderly it barely affects if they even contract it. The only thing I can think of that makes any sense is some sort of genetic cause and effect. Also seen that China has released info about some of the autopsy’s they have done that show up to 20% cardiac damage in patients that had no history of cardiac problems.
Now I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist for the simple fact that I do not trust any government agency or federally level politician and high level state politicians. So with that said, it seems quite possible that information is being kept from us for some reason. If they can develop test that can determine if you are infected in minutes instead of days over the course of a few months, they have to know much more about the workings of this virus and are not sharing it.

Innumeracy looks interesting; added to my list, thanks neilbourjaily.

Yes, that's how I understand it too; that we have multiple different strains of corona circulating. Check out this tool: https://nextstrain.org/ncov . Scroll down to "Transmissions", and click the green play button, and you can see a genomic animation of the spread. I don't know enough to know how much a strain difference matters, but that tool is fascinating.

Regarding government messaging; they have their goals, individuals have theirs. Western governments have already expended significant political capital pushing a masks-don't-work message. I understand that they have to preserve masks for healthcare workers, but they had to sacrifice public trust to make that move. That may have been a foolish move, or it may actually have been perfectly reasonable.

Let's talk numbers, especially in light of neilbourjaily's position about mathematical literacy. Note the now-famous Johns Hopkins covid map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html . Let's examine the closed case fatality rate. That means everyone who either recovered or died. So, all closed cases go in the denominator. As I'm looking at it now, that's total deaths + total recovered: 37,649 + 165,370 = 203,019. And of course the numerator is total deaths: 37,649.

37,649 / 203,019 = 18.5%. That's the current global closed case fatality rate. In US, Italy, Spain, it's much worse. Public messaging says that there are many cases out there that aren't making it into the numbers, and I agree. This includes asymptomatic cases (no symptoms), and people who got covid, got sick, and the sickness resolved on its own, without those people being reported as covid positives. This group: asymptomatics + quietly resolved cases, will have to be very large to push that closed case fatality rate down to, say, below 2%. For example, if you have 10 times the number of closed cases, and zero additional deaths, that closed case fatality rate comes down to 1.85%:

37,649 / 2,030,190 = 1.85%

Fatality rates of emerging infectious disease are notoriously inaccurate, and it's reasonable to believe that the closed case fatality rate will come down, but nobody knows by how much.

Yes Jon I agree with the public policy about masks, and about mortality, here in France they say that figures take mainly into account the number of hospitalized cases. There is on one end a rate of mortality in the elderly hospices not really taken into account, but on the other end, there is a great number of cases treated at home, and fortunately people recover but the cases are not taken into account at the denominator.
But we must not, for now, as individuals, take too much focus on the deaths figures, we will have enough to discuss this after the crisis, and the concern for now is to avoid anxiety and stress. So personally, I tend to listen more music and close my radio very soon after breakfast.
The only message is to keep people at home, keep safe behaviors, mainly to protect the medical staff.
This is everyone's responsibility.

China may have reported those numbers but you should also see this: https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-deat...fected-bodies/

And this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1D6kMeBFas&app=desktop

Now, there's no telling how reliable that reporting is, but if you were the CCP, would you be totally straight with the world, or would you lie to cover your culpability in foisting off a pandemic on the planet?

Occam's razor. Is it a miracle that they Chinese are so lightly affected, or are they lying?

It's a much simpler and much more likely explanation that the authorities in China are lying to you. The US is not the most affected country on earth. We're just reported to be.

CCN explaining their Search Engine Optimization Writing methods, tips and tricks here:
https://www.ccn.com/seo-optimized-wr...r-journalists/

AFAIK, ony time will perhaps tell whoever's right.
Personally, I avoid click-bait sites, but then that's just me thinking many of them are merely revenue-generating "weapons of mass distraction".


Caveat: Occam's Razor could also be used as a conclusion-jumping pole in a complex world of seemingly paradoxical facts.

Just my two cents.
Johan

PS: "All solutions and no clues. That's what the dumbheads want...
That’s the bloody Novel: He said - she said - and descriptions of the sky.
I'd rather it was the other way around. All clues. No solutions.
That's the way things are. Plenty of clues. No solutions." 22:38 into:

https://youtu.be/NDdWkh6tMVs?t=1350

Philip Marlow in "The Singing Detective" TV series

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSdQPtciBRg

Disregard whatever you like. It's got nothing to do with the headlines and who posted them. It has to do with the likelihoods of which explanation makes the best sense.

By the way, Tim Pool, who posted the video, is one of the most trusted people in journalism, so dig in and find a rationale so you can dismiss him too, but you aren't convincing anyone of anything worth believing by pointing to old television and reciting vague generalizations.

But just for kicks, here's the Pollyanna's national anthem, in case you need to feel good about something completely irrelevant to the point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TheElderBrother

Disregard whatever you like. It's got nothing to do with the headlines and who posted them.
It has to do with the likelihoods of which explanation makes the best sense.

By the way, Tim Pool, who posted the video, is one of the most trusted people in journalism,[Citation needed] so dig in and find a rationale so you can dismiss him too, but you aren't convincing anyone of anything worth believing by pointing to old television and reciting vague generalizations.

But just for kicks, here's the Pollyanna's national anthem, in case you need to feel good about something completely irrelevant to the point:

---

Thanks, and pardon me for using an old vid for driving an epistemological query of confirmation bias & jumping conclusions.
I'm not trying to convince anybody - my point is simply put: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Source_criticism.
Your concerns and explanations for my methods, dismissals and feelings are truly irrelevant to the point.
Have a nice day!