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1. ## Woman makes underwear covid mask - GIF

Previously:

Woman demonstrates handwashing technique - GIF
Quarantine, day four - GIF
Woman in plague mask for social distancing poster - image

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Caution contagious skid marks

4. I'm getting tired of the hysteria, misinformation & lack of basic math surrounding the actual threat of Covid-19, so I did some rudimentary calculations today based on current data for the U.S.:

DO THE MATH, FOLKS… THE SEASONAL FLU IS CURRENTLY ~3 TO 6 TIMES MORE DEADLY THAN COVID-19

Between October 1, 2019 and March 21, 2020 (172 days) between 24,000 and 62,000 people died from the SEASONAL FLU in the U.S., which is an average of between 140 and 360 deaths per day.

From February 29th, 2020 (date of first U.S. death) to March 28th (29 days) 1668 people have died from Covid-19 in the U.S., which is an average of 58 deaths per day.

Sources as of 3/28/2020:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

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6. Do the same math, but just use the deaths for yesterday. Now note the daily increase in covid deaths.

That's why people are scared.

7. Originally Posted by Jon
Do the same math, but just use the deaths for yesterday. Now note the daily increase in covid deaths.

That's why people are scared.
Help me out here, Jon (or anyone). I'm looking for a graph/chart/stats that shows *U.S.* Covid-19 deaths *each day* from February 29th to present. I'm not finding anything close to that at all, but maybe you have one at your fingertips. Thanks!

I would say the reason people are scared is because the media has decided to over-hype the seriousness of the situation. Here's an article on what Dr. Faucci said on Thursday about what we can actually expect from Covid-19:

The U.S. has tens of thousands of flu deaths annually, but the media DOES NOT hype it anywhere near what they're doing with this. I'm going to go out on a pretty thick limb here and predict that there will be less U.S. deaths from Covid-19 than the average annual flu deaths. Why is it a pretty thick limb? Because the "flu season" occurs in the winter when folks are concentrated inside more in "incubators" and this Chinese virus hit us at or past the midway point in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. death toll doesn't reach 10 to 15k or less.

8. NYT has a good infographic here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-country.html

This Worldometers one is popular now: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (scroll down about 3/4 of the page)

Wikipedia also has good pages for each country. Here's the US one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c..._United_States (scroll down about 3/4 to the graph, and click the sources button, and you can see the state-by-state breakdown).

This one is good, and will let you pick and choose the countries you want to graph: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...ths-by-country

Usually, you'll be able to hover over a data point on a map that you see, and move forward day-by-day to see the increase.

I also like the Johns Hopkins map that many are referencing: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

To be clear, I'm not disputing the figures you're posting. I'm just pointing out that the increase in deaths is so rapid, that going back to Jan. 21 is obscuring the data.

9. Originally Posted by Jon
... I'm just pointing out that the increase in deaths is so rapid, that going back to Jan. 21 is obscuring the data.
Thanks much for those links... will check them out tonight.

I agree that going back to Jan 21 was too far, I've edited my original post to go back to the date of the first U.S. death on Feb. 29th and corrected the daily death rate accordingly. That original Jan. 21st to the present was based on the date that the CDC began tracking U.S. cases & not deaths (and I failed to notice that initially). Thanks for catching that!

10. Sounds good. Let me know if you find something interesting. I spent some time in the "just the flu" camp myself, so I can't really criticize here.

11. Jon, that last link you provided was most helpful, in that it gave a graph of the daily U.S. Covid-19 deaths.

If you consider U.S. flu season to begin Oct. 1 and end on May 1st, and you take today’s U.S. Covid-19 death rate of 329, and use that as the average forecast daily death rate up to the first of May (34 days), then you get a total death count up to May 1st of 12,854. If you extend that rate to the end of May, the total comes to 22,724. At those speculative figures, the death rate of covid-19 would be near/below the lower threshold of our seasonal U.S. flu deaths.

I'm not even going to try to postulate on an apex date on the Bell Curve, or the peak daily death rate on that date, but I think it's safe to say this isn't going to be anything to worry about, and certainly nothing to destroy the economy or forfeit our rights over. On the bright side, it's likely that those who've contracted either the seasonal flu or Covid-19 would be less likely to contract the other due to an activated/boosted immune system.

According to the WND article linked in my above post:

"On Thursday, forecasters at the University of Washington's School of Medicine released a study Thursday estimating COVID-19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the U.S. by early April under the current lockdown conditions."

Well, early April is only a few days away, and I'm not seeing 80,000 U.S. deaths being anything close to reality by April 10th. We'll see, but I'm sticking to my statement that the media is WAY over-hyping this.

12. Originally Posted by IAMSatisfied
take today’s U.S. Covid-19 death rate of 329, and use that as the average forecast daily death rate up to the first of May
This is a big leap.

Also, that 329 figure is not complete yet for today. It's at least 50% higher than that.

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